Resilience of Mining Stocks: Impact of Gold Price Volatility and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Antam’s Investment Performance
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Published:
May 30, 2025
Keywords:
Global crisis, Gold volatility, Rupiah exchange rate, Stock Resilience, VECM
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Economy
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Abstract
This study investigates the effect of gold price volatility and rupiah exchange rate on the stock performance of Antam Public Limited Company during four periods of global uncertainty, namely the US-China Trade War (2018-2020), COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2022), Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-2023), and Israel-Hamas Conflict (2023-2024). Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this analysis evaluates the short-term and long-term relationships between these variables based on daily time series data. The results show significant variation in the effects between periods. Gold price volatility has a strong effect on Antam shares during the US-China Trade War (short and long run) and the COVID-19 Pandemic (long run), reflecting gold's role as a safe haven asset. In contrast, the rupiah exchange rate dominated the influence during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (short and long run), driven by a weakening exchange rate that boosted export earnings. In the Israel-Hamas Conflict, both variables were insignificant, indicating the limited impact of the regional conflict. These findings underscore the dynamics of market responses to global crises, providing new insights into the resilience of mining stocks and strategic implications for investors and policy makers in managing economic risks
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How to Cite
Dewi, R. F. ., Nurdini, Y., Gunawan, D. . and Cahyadi, L. . (2025) “Resilience of Mining Stocks: Impact of Gold Price Volatility and Rupiah Exchange Rate on Antam’s Investment Performance”, Jurnal Mantik, 9(1), pp. 205-214. doi: 10.35335/mantik.v8i5.6309.
References
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Vella Adelia, Hanum Nur Rahmadhani, Nelsy Helmilia Putri, Ela Juliyani, Wanda Berliandes, Rahma Maulida Erizal, Annisa Safitra, Putri Fauzely Mulia, Raja Septian Armel, & Billy Nurmanto. (2024). Evaluasi Laporan Kinerja Keuangan PT Antam Tbk Menggunakan Analisis Trend pada Periode 2020-2023. Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa, 3(3), 78–87. https://doi.org/10.58192/populer.v3i3.2400
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Yu, Y., Ma, D., & Qian, Y. (2023). A resilience measure for the international nickel trade network. Resources Policy, 86, 104296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104296
Arfah, Y., Gunawan, D., Mardayanti, I., Haratikka, H., & Anggun, D. (2023). Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate of Hang Seng Index and LQ45 Index: Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Business, Economics & Financial Studies, 1(2), 64–68. https://doi.org/10.62157/ijbefs.v1i2.24
Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S., & Terry, S. (2020). COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26983
Estefania, Estina Sativa, & Eva Noorliana. (2021). Analisis Pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia Melalui Pengembangan Sektor Pertambangan. Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains, 2(5), 756–765. https://doi.org/10.36418/jiss.v2i5.293
Feren, J. G., & Sihwahjoeni. (2022). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Kurs Rupiah, dan Harga Emas Terhadap Return Saham PT. Anta, tbk. yang Terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ekonomi-Bisnis, 29–41.
Gantz, D. A. (2020). North America’s Shifting Supply Chains: The USMCA, COVID-19, and the U.S.-China Trade War. In Center for the Unitd States and Mexico, Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy (Vol. 54, Issue 1). https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/6ed66d98/usmx-pub-supplychains-111120.pdf
Gunawan, D. (2022). Dynamic Relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index and the Jakarta Composite Index. Jurnal Mantik (Manajemen, Teknologi Informatika Dan Komunikasi ), 6(2), 1333–1339.
Gunawan, D., & Arfah, Y. (2019). Dampak Perang Dagang Amerika-Tiongkok Terhadap Integrasi Pasar Modal Global. Proseding Seminar Nasional Kewirausahaan, 1(1), 76–85. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30596/snk.vlil.3584
Handayani, H. (2023). Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Affects From The Israeli-Palestinian War. Ar-Ribhu: Jurnal Manajemen Dan Keuangan Syariah, 4(2), 100–110. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3776628/pakar-sebut-
Ibrahim, M. R., Sudirman, A., & Tumulo, L. J. (2024). Implikasi Dinamika Geopolitik Energi Rusia-Ukraina terhadap Keamanan Energi di Indonesia. Arus Jurnal Sosial Dan Humaniora, 4(3), 1314–1323. https://doi.org/10.57250/ajsh.v4i3.689
Kennedy, P. S. J. (2023). Dampak Perang Rusia Ukraina Terhadap Perekonomian Global. 9816(2), 1–12. http://ejournal.uki.ac.id/index.php/jm
Kurlillah, A., Rahimullah, Munadiati, & Abdul Hamid. (2023). The Stock Determinant Factors Of Aneka Tambang Tbk: The Rate Analysis For Inflation, Exchange Rate And Interest. Jii, 8(1), 123–135. https://doi.org/10.32505/jii.v8i1.6566
Kurnia Mauliani Ilahi, & Sri Prilmayanti Awaluddin. (2024). Analisis Eksplorasi Strategi Perusahaan Dalam Menghadapi Disrupsi Digital Di Era Industri 6.0: Studi Kasus Pada PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. OPTIMAL Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 4(2), 43–55. https://doi.org/10.55606/optimal.v4i2.3314
Larasati, D., & Bhayangkara, I. (2024). Analisis Tingkat Pengungkapan Elemen-Elemen Integrated Reporting Pada Pt. Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk Dan Pt. Aneka Tambang Tbk. Balance?: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 9(1), 82. https://doi.org/10.32502/jab.v9i1.8351
Lestari, A. A., Nabila, F., & Cahyani, A. (2024). Environmental Incidents, pemberitaan media dan praktik Pengungkapan Sustainablity Report. Journal of Integrated Business, Management, and Accounting Research, 9(1), 82. https://doi.org/10.54373/product.v2i1.53
Maharani, B., & Ningsih, P. A. (2025). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Return Saham Syariah Yang Terdaftar Di Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (Pada PT. Antam Tbk Periode 2019 – 2023). Jurnal Studi Multidisipliner, 9(1), 346–364.
Martins, A. M. (2024). Global equity, commodities and bond market response to Israel-Hamas war. Finance Research Letters, 67, 105900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105900
Nasdian, F. T., Katrina Pandjaitan, N., & Ardinal Barlan, Z. (2020). Community Resilience of Mining Area and Food Vulnerability in South Kalimantan. Sodality: Jurnal Sosiologi Pedesaan, 8(1), 47–63. https://doi.org/10.22500/8202028246
Nugraheni, R. P., & Dwiyanto, B. S. (2023). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Sektor Pertambangan Sebelum Dan Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Optimal, 20(1), 58–75.
Ramadhan, M. N. F., Zamhuri, M. Y., S., M., & Mubarak. (2025). Kajian Sinkronisasi Siklus Ekonomi dan Integrasi Antarnegara di Asia Tenggara. Ekonomika Dan Dinamika Sosial, 4, 161–176.
Ridho, M. (2024). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volatilitas Harga Saham pada Perusahaan LQ45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Rekognisi Ekonomi Islam, 3(2), 1–10. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.34001/jrei.v3i02.1043
Romadhon, M. I., Amalia, D. S., & Fauziyah, A. R. (2024). Dampak Geopolitik Perang Israel-Iran Terhadap Pengelolaan Portofolio Investasi Global. 4, 6333–6347. https://j-innovative.org/index.php/Innovative
Sari, M., Marselina, & Aida, N. (2021). Perang Dagang AS-Cina: Dampak Ekonomi Pada Negara Mitra Dagang AS-Cina. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, Volume 21, 132–144. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v%vi%i.7518
Tumbur, S., & Sudrajad, O. Y. (2024). Intrinsic and Relative Valuation of PT Aneka Tambang , Tbk?: Navigating through Commodity Market Volatility and Industry Transformation. 3(8), 130–138. https://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V3I8P116
Vella Adelia, Hanum Nur Rahmadhani, Nelsy Helmilia Putri, Ela Juliyani, Wanda Berliandes, Rahma Maulida Erizal, Annisa Safitra, Putri Fauzely Mulia, Raja Septian Armel, & Billy Nurmanto. (2024). Evaluasi Laporan Kinerja Keuangan PT Antam Tbk Menggunakan Analisis Trend pada Periode 2020-2023. Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa, 3(3), 78–87. https://doi.org/10.58192/populer.v3i3.2400
Yao, C.-Z., Liu, C., & Ju, W.-J. (2020). Multifractal analysis of the WTI crude oil market, US stock market and EPU. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 550, 124096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.124096
Yu, Y., Ma, D., & Qian, Y. (2023). A resilience measure for the international nickel trade network. Resources Policy, 86, 104296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104296
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