Sales Forecasting Applications For Retail Companies Using Double Exponential Smoothing And Golden Section Methods
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The availability of goods becomes one of the keys to the success of supermarket business in fulfilling consumer needs. The Forecasting methods can help to predict the sales in the future and it can help to find sales statistics daily, monthly or yearly. The application of exponential smoothing requires the process of determining the smoothing value by performing several tests. The determination of smoothing is a challenge in the forecasting process because it takes several tests of the optimal smoothing value to reduce forecasting errors. This study proposed the application of the golden section in optimizing the determination of the smoothing value. Golden section is an optimization method that provides extreme values ??of a non-linear function by reducing the range of values ??that contain extreme values. The results of the Forecasting method were based on the training data in which the trend and the result of the forecasting approached to the training data that used for forecasting. According to the results of the forecasting which conducted based on the training data was MAPE 26.460474 % and MAPE results from comparison of testing data obtained was 21.89696%.
Downloads
Article Details
[2] D. Grewal, D. K. Gauri, A. L. Roggeveen, and R. Sethuraman, “Strategizing Retailing in the New Technology Era,” J. Retail., vol. 97, no. 1, pp. 6–12, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.jretai.2021.02.004.
[3] Novianus, Helmi, and S. Martha, “Perbandingan Keefektifan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Hotel Merpati,” Bul. Ilm. Math, Stat, dan Ter., vol. 04, no. 3, pp. 251–258, 2015.
[4] T. D. Andini and P. Auristandi, “Peramalan Jumlah Stok Alat Tulis Kantor di UD Achmad Jaya Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” J. Ilm. Teknol. Inf. Asia, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 1–10, 2016.
[5] R. Ariyanto, D. Puspitasari, and F. Ericawati, “PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA PERAMALAN PRODUKSI TANAMAN PANGAN,” J. Inform. Polinema, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 57–62, 2017.
[6] F. Z. Zoubiri, R. Rihani, and F. Bentahar, “Golden section algorithm to optimise the chemical pretreatment of agro-industrial waste for sugars extraction,” Fuel, vol. 266, no. January, p. 117028, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.fuel.2020.117028.
[7] S. N. Kane, A. Mishra, and A. K. Dutta, “International Conference on Recent Trends in Physics 2016 (ICRTP2016),” J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol. 755, no. 1, p. 011001, Oct. 2016, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/755/1/011001.
[8] G. Sandhya Rani, S. Jayan, and K. V. Nagaraja, “An extension of golden section algorithm for n-variable functions with MATLAB code,” IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng., vol. 577, no. 1, 2019, doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/577/1/012175.
[9] J. Y. Shi et al., “Dual-algorithm maximum power point tracking control method for photovoltaic systems based on grey wolf optimization and golden-section optimization,” J. Power Electron., vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 841–852, 2018, doi: 10.6113/JPE.2018.18.3.841.
[10] A. Saputro and B. Purwanggono, “Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Semen dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing pada PT. Semen Indonesia,” Ind. Eng. Online J., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 1–7, 2016.
[11] F. Sutisna and Hendy, “Analisis Perbandingan Tingkat Kesalahan Metode Peramalan Sebagai Upaya Perencanaan Pengelolaan Persediaan yang Optimal pada PT Duta Indah Sejahtera,” J. Bina Manaj., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 46–47, 2019.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.